Data
Check our work.
Every figure on this site, as a spreadsheet, with the arithmetic written out. If you disagree with an assumption, change it and see what happens — that is what these files are for.
Downloads
| File | What's in it | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| program-figures.csv | Every input: enrolment counts, the negotiated rate, the discount, the utilization factor, the administrative fee, the tap cap, and the tap trend. Each row carries its vintage and source. | 15 |
| scenarios.csv | All five scenarios, computed at both readings of the contested hours premium, with the per-student rate used for each. | 10 |
| mode-costs.csv | Annual cost per student by transportation mode, from fare card to contracted cab. | 5 |
Scroll the table sideways to see every column.
The arithmetic
Every projected cost on this site is one line:
projected annual cost = eligible students × per-student rate × utilization rate
The per-student rate starts at the negotiated $662.46. Scenarios that lift the evening and weekend restriction multiply it by the hours premium (1.000 at SEPTA's reading, 1.206 at the School District's). The year-round scenario multiplies again by 1.2, for twelve months instead of ten.
New city funding is that figure minus the baseline computed at the same utilization rate, so the comparison is like with like.
Where 64.5% comes from
It is a spend ratio, not a headcount. The theoretical maximum — every eligible student holding and fully using a card — is 68,110 × $662.46 = $45.1 million. Actual FY25 program cost is $29.1 million. That ratio is 64.5%.
It decomposes as 77.2% of eligible students being assigned a card (52,563 of 68,110), multiplied by 83.6% of an assigned card's full annual value actually being billed — roughly 8.4 of 10 school months. Total billing corresponds to about 43,927 student-years.
Note that this is a different quantity from the 32,067 students the District describes as actively using cards. "Active" and "billed" are not the same population, and the utilization factor tracks the second.
What we have assumed
- Newly eligible students — those within 1.5 miles — take up cards at the same 64.5% rate as students today. This is probably conservative: living closer to school reduces the need to commute by transit, which would push real costs below these projections.
-
The hours premium is genuinely contested. SEPTA puts it at zero; the School
District's documented position is the full 20.6% restricted-pass discount.
Both are in
scenarios.csv. - The 9% administrative fee is not modeled in any scenario. Its direction is ambiguous in the source, and it is capped at $3.5M — a cap that binds above roughly $38.9M of program spending.
- Cost projections are the authors'. The underlying counts and rates are the School District's, December 2024. Treat the projections as estimates subject to verification by the contracting parties.